Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Pakistan

Abstract

Agriculture sector holds great value for Pakistan. Climate change is a major determinant of agricultural productivity all over the world. This sector is the most vulnerable sector to weather change. The productivity of this sector is being affected by several factors of climate change like temperature and rainfall patterns. The core objective of the study is to determine the impact of climate change on agricultural production (wheat, rice, and sugarcane) in Pakistan. Time series data from 1985–2018 is taken from the Pakistan Economic Survey, Metrology department of Pakistan, and the World Bank for the current analysis. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is used to analyze the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Pakistan. The results show that climate change has an influential impact on agricultural production in Pakistan. The increase in mean temperature reduces agricultural production while the rain positively affects agricultural production. It is suggested that the government should give subsidies on agrarian tools, seeds, and fertilizers.