Economic Growth, Demographic Change, Energy Consumption, and Vegetation Degradation in Pakistan: ARDL Evidence on the Energy–Environment Nexus

Abstract

While research on ecological sustainability in developing economies is usually concerned with the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the atmosphere, land use change and deforestation are important, real-time indicators of environmental degradation. The present study examines the interdependence between these parameters of economic growth, population growth, urbanization, energy use and carbon emissions associated with the presence of vegetation cover in Pakistan in the period 1990-2025. Both short and long run equilibrium relationships are explored using time-series, World Development Indicators (WDI) data and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing model with small-sample critical value corrections. With the addition of the quadratic income specification the study rigorously examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for vegetative degradation. The results of this empirical study confirm a strong cointegration relationship between the variables. Substantial negative effects are caused by energy use, urbanization, and population growth. According to short-run error correction mechanism, there will be a quick adjustment to the long-run equilibrium after external shocks. The findings revealed the need for a complementary approach that integrates indicators from the atmosphere and the land to develop policies and strategies for environmental and energy transitions and environmentally sustainable urban development in Pakistan.