Unravelling Food Security Disarrays in Pakistan through Multifaceted Analysis, and Future Projections

Abstract

This study addresses food security for sustainable development of the populace in Pakistan. Achieving universal food security requires the sufficient availability of all food groups at micro and macro levels. However, existing disarrays in policy formulation, agricultural research and development, and the narratives of development practitioners have led to disarray in food availability, and requirement in Pakistan. The objectives include examining the regional growth trends in the per capita availability of selected food items, and the trends in the composition of various food groups consumed by various income quintiles to analyze the factors affecting food production and consumption diversity in Pakistan. Time series data w.e.f. 1971 to 2023 is used, employing a multifaceted analytical approach, including descriptive statistics, trends in growth rate, HIES based estimates, and projections, and preparation of food balance sheets. The research paper evaluated that thirteen out of twenty selected food items are identified as pivotal for sustaining growth. Comparative analysis of Household Integrated Economic Surveys (HIES) across income quintiles reveals notable shifts in consumption patterns. Projections for 2030 and 2050 indicate a decline in wheat and rice consumption, contrasted by increases in the intake of potatoes, fruits, chicken, fish, milk, eggs, and vegetables. Food balance sheets helped in assessing that apples, beef, chilies, onions, sugar and tomatoes are underscoring significant disarrays. This paper recommends a balancing approach in policies for food security of Pakistan. The findings of this research shall improve the understanding of the policy practitioners of the country about food security management.